Some Political Predictions for 2006

A long time ago I was considered what was called "a futurist." Had to predict trends based in what's up yesterday and today, patterns and which way they'll break, for business clients as well as my political mentors. So this is my offering for what I see as important factors to consider as we move into 2006.

The coming year will be much different than the past two years. In 2004-2005, we saw a lot of manipulations and crowing, with many of the former exposed of late and much of the latter shown to be so much hot air. (Think "I've got the political capital and I plan to spend it.") The past 12 months ushered in a new political day, and many got to work repositioning themselves to do their thing in 2006. One big shift coming is you may expect a major swing in Congressional seats in 2006, with as many as 20-25 House seats and 2-4 Senate seats (or more!) due to change hands. Read more by clicking on the title link.

Part of this is due to Jack Abramoff's impending testimony, where over 40 members of Congress have taken money in shady deals and in some cases, outright bribery. This impacts the entire Republican leadership (with maybe the exceptions of McCain, Warner, and a few others) and in many cases, there will be indictments and a lot of scrambling for cover by those who were in his pocket as they voted on legislation that puts them on record as parties to influence peddling. In addition, the federal investigation of Bill Frist for insider trading and conflict of interest will continue to put a cloud over his leadership.

The bigger impact will be in Republican fundraising for individual races. The casino money slushbucket scam that ensured so many Repub candidates got lots when they needed it was cooked up by Tom DeLay and his minions, and with "the hammer" under multiple indictments, he's going to have a hard time raising and keeping money under the radar screen as he scrambles to save his own hide.

As you know from previous articles on this site, Abramoff scammed the Native Americans and funneled the dough to DeLay and ARMPAC, who in turn passed it through bag men like Ellis and Colyandro, to ensure certain Repub candidates were well funded. Overview link here. No more. The Native Americans are on to the scam, so that slush fund has dried up, and with Abramoff about to tell a lot of bad news about who he bought, not only will many Repubs not have money, they're returning it as fast as they can to distance themselves from the evil they've already done, which usually doesn't sit well with the American public. So the financial playing field will soon become more level than it's been in many years.

Last year was "business as usual" blowing up in the faces of the arrogant, and America's secret torture and spying operations are now out for all to smell. While there will be much we don't know, expect 2006 to bring about a widespread call for justice, equilibrium, fairness, and openness. When that happens in the body politic, it usually accompanies a "throw the bums out" tidal wave that grows stronger over months and results in fairly large political changes. Incumbancy will not help those who seek re-election in 2006.

Another factor in the 2006 election will be an increasing number of calls for more transparency in voting, including greater scrutiny of electronic vote machines. The companies that make the machines will soon not be able to steal elections as they have in the past due to calls for paper trails and recordable and verifiable records.

A long term factor is the recent revelation that the DeLay engineered Texas redistricting resulting in large Repub House gains was illegal, so more seats should be in play over the long term, always good for democracy. Personally, I believe we should double the number of House members and cut their salaries in half, thus increasing representation at no cost. We can only wish.

The call for more just conditions will grow stronger as the year develops, so expect populism to have more cred this year. The Dems will be more organized this year, and have put more Congressional seats into play than ever before, just as the Repubs have lost their slushbucket and the hammer is no longer effective in giving marching orders to the loyal.

Speaking of that, the Roverly Lyin' has his own problems, preventing "turdblossom" from putting his full concentration on his usual deviant strategems. Many senior WH staffers are burned out from trying to keep a lid on Dubya's abberrant behavior, so expect more to retire into well-paid private corporate positions. Dubya will offer no "coat tail" effect for Repubs this year, and will continue to be a liability rather than an asset to his party. Expect more sordid details of the Valerie Plame investigation to plague the White House this year, also contributing to public disgust with the immoral and illegal activities of senior administration officials.

The coming economic trainwreck will not happen this year, but there will be a leveling in the housing market, and many will begin to bail on their real estate investments due to interest rate creep. Pressure on Congress to do something about the out of control budget will create havoc, and there will be more calls to investigate why it's costing so much to accomplish so little in Iraq. And with Ken Lay's impending trial, it will remind America that corporate corruption is rampant, and bring greater scrutiny and calls for accountability to strengthen America's pension funds.

2006 will be fairly prosperous for many, as the economy will continue to do fairly well for most of the year despite impending destabilization. Expect the signs of a major slowdown and correction toward the end of the year that will continue through 2007. 2006 will show the public's attitude to be anxious and protective, with calls to safeguard what is beneficial to all rather than the privileged.

All in all, by this time next year it will be seen that 2006 is going to be a fairly radical year, and progressive and just policies more important than the exclusive, secretive policies of the past two years. The signs of a long range political revolution will begin to emerge this year, and those who are liberal or progressive will be a lot more bold and outspoken. There will be fierce defenses of alternative views, and the status quo will no longer be favored. Thus reform policies will gain traction, with more focus on practical tasking and less ideological crowing.

Again, there will be increasing outrage against injustice, with the usual fault finding as teams are formed to accomplish more than has been thought possible up to now. The political tide is definitely turning, and revolution will be in the air. The drums of war will diminish, and we may expect an atmosphere of confidence and optimism, and temporary improved economic conditions. Humanitarianism, justice, and devotion to higher ideals of service and loyalty will be more in evidence. Those who are insincere or noncommittal will be very frustrated this year.

New solutions will be found for long-standing problems, including environmental ones. There will be substantial breakthroughs in science and technology, helping fuel capital markets, R&D, and overall investment. Security tech will go through the roof, as will medical, with big pharma sinking under its own weight. Stock markets will be volatile, with overall gains due to new companies fueling increases while obsoletes shrink, fracture, or are absorbed into larger groups. The insurance industry will continue to reel from losses due to increasing numbers of natural disasters. Expect them and other malfunctioning sectors to seek more governmental protections.

This will be a year of fire and vitality, with sincerity, enthusiasm, and working for a better world valued more than previous years. Dirty tricks and dirty politics will continue to fall out of favor, and the collective memory will awaken to what a more ideal world would look like.

Summing things up, because liberalism and reform will predominate, favoring progressive and just policy, expect revolutionary political developments characterized by idealism, big schemes, prosperity, good will, and generosity.

Crossposted on my diary at My Left Wing.