Political predictions for the next six months
With only a couple weeks left before the election it seems like a good time to trot out some random thoughts and predictions for the future. A fools game indeed, but always fun to do...
Predictions
1. The Dems will take some kind of near/slim majority in the house and close the gap in the senate. That's about as safe a bet as one can make. Conventional wisdom all the way. If true, the victory will definitely be more attributable to the Democrat's 'not getting in the way of Republicans hanging themselves' than from them having really done anything. Literally. (I guess, Woody Allen was right after all. Life really is about just showing up most of the time.)
2. Six months from now even most politically activate folks, to say nothing of those who aren't, will be quite amazed at the lack of perceptible payoff for gains made in this election. The "better than nothing" sentiment which earned so many politicians, parties, and political communities their backing during this current time will seem overly optimistic to many in retrospect.
3. It gets harder to made educated predictions of much 6 months or more out because, of course, personal will and desire have a lot to do with future events - but I think it's fairly safe to conclude that the 2008 presidential race, which will start taking form around then, will have little in the way of positive currents shaping it. I'm personally scared to death by the possibilities given the willingness to subvert on one side, and the unwillingness to do much of anything about it on the other.
With over half a decade of
being totally disappointed by anything remotely resembling an election - I take my own "predictions" with a mountain of salt.
However, I think that murphy's law in this case might trump the otherwise cruel fate of again being on the losing side of yet another election.
Murphy's law in this case being - 'the only thing almost as bad as losing another election is to watch a bunch of jackasses congratulate themselves for winning via the forfeit of the other team - and then watching said jackasses announce their immediate retirement from future competition.'
Most recent mid-term elections...
...have been a referendum on what the public thought of the Party in charge. 2006 may prove no different -- a majority of voters are dissatisfied with the Repubs, and God-willing and the creek don't rise, they will show just how dissatisfied two weeks from now.
But like you say, what will the Dems (read jackasses) really do? At one point, I was almost hoping that the Dems don't win. They will be under tremendous pressure to put us on a new path, but are they up to the task? If they actually did manage to get some relevant bills passed (health care, immigration, Soc. Sec., energy) would Bush finally use his cob-webbed veto pen?
I was of the thought that, hey the Repubs got us into this mess, let them continue on their screwed up course to get us out. I thought everyone needs to see just how incompetent this Admin. (read GOP) really is. But that thinking is selfish, it's not what's good for the country. We need to get off this path of self-destruction and move back in the direction of once again trying to be the modern world's most successful experiment in democracy.
Flying by the seat of my rants...
Between a rock and the threshing blade...
"I was of the thought that, hey the Repubs got us into this mess, let them continue on their screwed up course to get us out. I thought everyone needs to see just how incompetent this Admin. (read GOP) really is. But that thinking is selfish, it's not what's good for the country. We need to get off this path of self-destruction and move back in the direction of once again trying to be the modern world's most successful experiment in democracy.
That pretty much sums up the only thing standing between me and washing my hands of the whole stupid mess.
The fact is, if the jackass dems win - at the very least it means that the republicans hopefully can't cause as much trouble. And that's good. The choice to me right now feels like it's between being totally cynical about this countries chances over the next 8 years based on the facts, or else being willing to try and affirm some good in spite of them. :)
Not very inspiring I know, but I guess life continues on in spite of how anybody "feels" about it. Of course, sometimes I do look enviously at the ones who just prefer to stick their head in the sand and say, 'hey man, if it's good for me - it's good!'. There's a level of observation whereby it's easy to see that many who have just looked out for themselves have done nothing but prosper for a good long time now. Of course that is a very base and crude level of observation, but it's there, right...
At times like this ("this" being the last several years) there sure is some allure to joining the huddled masses in their bliss. Alas, I don't think they'd have me even if I were willing.
So in the end I guess I likes my past, present, and future outlook like I likes my coffee.
Dark and bitter! ;)
Ignorance may be blissful...
...but Bush has proven that it can be dangerous too. Besides his multitude of character and intellectual flaws, one of Bush's most serious offences is his total lack of understanding or preparedness for what it meant to be President. He has no sense of history, statemanship, diplomacy or foreign affairs. We might as well have put Mickey Mouse in charge, at least we may have gotten a good laugh out of it.
So America needs people like you and all the others who care and make the effort to expose the abuses, who work hard to get the country back on the right track. It is one thing to simply have a difference of opinion with someone on the right about how to achieve national goals, but this so-called President has all but discarded the important principles that our country has lived by for over 200 years. His dysfunctional ego leads him to believe that he is charged with some divine mission to rid the world of evil-doers. Well, good luck with that, Mr. B. Because I guarantee you a thousand years from now there will still be evil-doers and no amount of U.S. troops, planes, missiles or bombs will be able to eradicate that fact.
I guess my whole point to this rant is that, yes, current events are enough to make anyone cynical. But once one realizes that we are imperfect beings living in an imperfect system and that people can only strive to reach the ideal, then a Dem takeover next week can only be seen as a beacon of hope. I would even settle for getting rid of every incumbent and starting fresh. But barring that, what I do know is that Bush, with the help of his rubber-stamping Repub clones, has started us on a path of self-destruction and that must be stopped, yesterday.
Flying by the seat of my rants...
#4 The unknown: Gay Marriage
Yesterday, the New Jersey Supreme Court ruled that "gay couples are entitled to the same legal rights and financial benefits as heterosexual couples." In the 2004 presidential race, the issue of gay marriage became a pivotal issue with so-called "values voters." Kerry was painted as pro-gay marriage (though he was not) and Bush adamantly opposed any union that wasn't with one man, one woman. Bush even talked about a constitutional amendment to guarantee that very premise. Many believe Kerry lost on this point alone.
The Repubs are already using this NJ decision to rally those same "values voters." What's fascinating to me is that these "value voters" would vote for people who condone torture, who continue to support an illegal war where hundreds of innocents are being killed every week, and who provided cover for a child predator but who oppose same-sex marriages. Fascinating!
Flying by the seat of my rants...
Factoring in the Factors
Good predictions. I too like to believe that Dems will take over the House, but so many factors come into play, I dare not get my hopes up too high:
As for predicting what the Dems would do if they won -- I'd rather try to predict who will win the presidential election in the year 2020.